San Francisco Hotel Market 2026

San Francisco’s hotel market in 2026: RevPAR is still climbing off a deep post-pandemic trough, Moscone Center room nights are up sharply, and large distressed boxes that defined 2023–24 are finally clearing — most visibly the Hilton San Francisco Union Square and Parc 55 receivership sale. This page tracks SF Travel / STR full-year 2025 and 2026 forecast occupancy, ADR and RevPAR; CoStar/STR monthly Top 25 prints for San Francisco / San Mateo; hotel sales from January 2025 through October 2026 with price per key where disclosed; the guest tax stack (14% TOT + TID + MED); Prop I real-estate transfer-tax tiers; and the thin new-build pipeline.

Last updated: October 30, 2026 · Refresh as SF Travel monthly/annual releases, Treasurer & Tax Collector guidance and transaction disclosures land. Byline: Nathan Snyder, Editor.

2026 performance at a glance

Full-year 2025 — San Francisco (SF Travel; STR): occupancy 67.2%, ADR $245.38, RevPAR $164.85 (+14.4% YoY). Visitors 23.7 million; visitor spending $9.4 billion; city tax revenue $655 million; jobs supported 63,900. Moscone Center: 34 events / 635,227 room nights (+59% vs about 399,000 room nights / 25 events in 2024). SFO passengers >54.5 million (+4.3%) (SF Travel, May 7, 2026; SF Travel 2025 Annual Report PDF).

Full-year 2025 RevPAR — CoStar Top 25 San Francisco market (labeled separately): ADR $225.82 (+6.0%), RevPAR $155.84 (+11.8% YoY). Different geography/sample than SF Travel’s city series — print both; do not average (CoStar, Jan. 20, 2026).

Full-year 2026 — updated forecast (SF Travel, Aug. 26, 2026; supersedes May 7, 2026 cards): occupancy 70.7% (+5.2% YoY), ADR $266.16 (+8.5%), RevPAR $188.06 (+14.1% YoY). Visitors 24.4 million; visitor spending $9.94 billion. Moscone: 38 events / >656,000 room nights. Label as a forecast, not year-to-date actuals (SF Travel, Aug. 26, 2026).

June 2026 — CoStar Top 25 San Francisco / San Mateo (monthly metro): occupancy 80.5% (+7.9%), ADR $264.42 (+21.7%), RevPAR $212.87 (+31.2%) — World Cup month. This is a monthly metro figure for San Francisco/San Mateo, not the city’s annual number (CoStar STR June 2026). March 2026 same geography: 74.8% / $267.64 / $200.06 (GDC + RSA cited) (CoStar STR March 2026).

REIT slice — Pebblebrook Q3 2026 (same-property, not citywide STR): San Francisco RevPAR +14.5% (Pebblebrook, Oct. 29, 2026). Do not conflate with SF Travel citywide.

Supply and pipeline

New supply remains thin. Related California’s FiDi tower (447 Battery / 530 Sansome) is framed with a hotel component of 100–200 rooms, groundbreaking late 2026 and delivery around 2030 — not a 2026 delivery (Bisnow). The historic Oceanwide Center site at 50 First St. is a stalled megaproject now framed as Fifty at First, a ~910-ft all-office tower with a target debut around 2031 — any hotel phase is not an imminent 2026–27 opening (Urbanize SF, Sept. 16, 2026). Hilton Union Square + Parc 55 carry a minimum $175M CapEx obligation under the modified loan (Morningstar DBRS). A free primary SF Travel / Hotel Council 2025–26 openings list with locked room counts was not available for this page beyond the Related tower, Oceanwide/Fifty at First framing and CapEx notes.

Hotel tax, TID, MED and transfer tax

Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT): San Francisco’s city hotel tax is 14% of taxable rent for stays under 30 days, per SF.gov and the SF Treasurer & Tax Collector (Certificate of Authority and monthly/annual TOT returns both compute TOT as 14% of taxable rent). San Francisco Travel’s Tourism Improvement District FAQ states the city’s total hotel tax, assessments and fees is 17.50% (SF TID FAQ).

Tourism Improvement District (TID): Zone 1 2.25% of room revenue; Zone 2 2.00% (after a +1.0 percentage-point increase effective Nov. 1, 2024) (sftid.com; TID FAQ).

Moscone Expansion District (MED): Zone 1 1.25%; Zone 2 0.3125% of gross tourist-room revenue (TID/MED timing PDF). Illustrative Zone 1 stack: 14% TOT + 2.25% TID + 1.25% MED = 17.5% of taxable room rent before other charges — label as a stack, not a single ordinance rate.

Existing real-estate transfer tax (2020 Prop I tiers, still in force): consideration of $10 million to under $25 million is taxed at $27.50 per $500 (5.5%); $25 million and up at $30.00 per $500 (6%) on the Assessor-Recorder schedule (sf.gov transfer tax). Also applies to leaseholds of 35 years or more. These tiers are current law — not the November 2026 ballot measures below.

PENDING — Nov. 3, 2026 ballot Props I and J (qualified measures; not yet voted — do not treat as results). Official listing: sf.gov qualified ballot measures. Prop I (Changes to Real Property Transfer Tax) would dedicate roughly half of transfer-tax revenues on certain high-value transfers above $10 million to affordable housing programs; it does not replace the existing 2020 rate schedule (signed measure text). Prop J (Removal of Foreclosure Exemption for Real Property Transfer Tax) would, beginning March 1, 2027 per the legislative digest, end the partial foreclosure / deed-in-lieu exemption for most non-small-residential transfers (signed measure text). Same lettering as the 2020 Prop I law — keep them separate.

Notable 2025–2026 sales

• Hilton San Francisco Union Square + Parc 55 San Francisco – a Hilton Hotel (2,945 keys; closed Nov. 21, 2025): $408.0 million — about $138,540 per key ($408,000,000 ÷ 2,945). Buyer Newbond Holdings + Conversant Capital from court-appointed receiver (Park Hotels had no economic interest after the Oct. 2023 receivership). The HILT 2016-SFP loan was assumed and restructured at close (Park IR; Morningstar DBRS). Prefer $408M (Morningstar DBRS / SF Chronicle / Fried Frank). CoStar’s year-end review cited $367.2M / $124,669 per key — shown here only as a labeled conflict, not the primary card (Morningstar DBRS; SF Chronicle; Park Hotels IR; Fried Frank).
• Hyatt Regency San Francisco (Embarcadero; 821 keys; closed July 30, 2026): $279 million gross — about $340,000 per key (exact $339,829). Buyer funds affiliated with Blackstone Real Estate from Sunstone Hotel Investors; Eastdil Secured exclusive broker (Sunstone).
• The Clancy (Autograph Collection, SoMa; 410 keys; Nov. 2025): $115 million — $280,487 per key. Buyer Sixth Street with Riller Capital from Braemar Hotels & Resorts (Sixth Street; Braemar).
• Hyatt Centric Fisherman’s Wharf (316 keys; May 22, 2025): $80 million — about $253,000 per key (exact $253,165). Seller Park Hotels & Resorts; buyer not named in the Park release (Park Hotels IR).
• Four Seasons Hotel San Francisco (277 keys; late Nov. 2025): reported about $130 million (~$469k/key) to Blackstone from Westbrook Partners — trade/local coverage; not confirmed by a deed or seller 8-K opened for this page (SF Chronicle; Skift DLR). Label as reported.
• The Barnes San Francisco (189 keys; ~March 2026): sold to EOS Investors; price undisclosed — no price per key published here (The Registry).

Distress still marketing: Stanford Court Nob Hill (~400 keys, leasehold) marketed by Eastdil with foreclosure still described as looming — sale outcome unconfirmed. Hyatt Regency San Francisco Downtown SoMa (686 keys) listed by Blackstone with Eastdil — marketing, not a closed sale.

Current for-sale listings

Every ask below was checked on a broker page. The Hotelier Times hotels-for-sale roundups are not a source for these figures.

• The Addison, 2263–2269 Sacramento St. (Pacific Heights; 28 units): asking $8,900,000 — $317,857 per unit. Live on Marcus & Millichap (Marcus & Millichap).
• Hyatt Regency San Francisco Downtown SoMa (686 keys): ask not disclosed; marketed by Eastdil Secured (TRD, Aug. 3, 2026).
• Stanford Court leasehold, 905 California St. (~400 keys): ask not disclosed; Eastdil Secured marketing (TRD, Mar. 3, 2026).

225 Ellis St. and Hotel Potter are not listed as current (MM URL no longer available; Potter listing dated 2022).

Demand drivers

Moscone is the structural midweek lever: room nights +59% in 2025; 38 events / >656,000 room nights paced for 2026 on SF Travel’s Aug. 26, 2026 forecast. Super Bowl LX and FIFA World Cup were named by SF Travel leadership as 2026 amplifiers — qualitative. Bay Area World Cup matches were at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara (six matches), not downtown San Francisco — Cup room demand competed with South Bay and Peninsula inventory. International overnight visitors are forecast at 2.3 million in 2026 (from 2.2 million in 2025) per Tourism Economics via SF Travel.

Key sources

• SF Travel, May 7, 2026 visitor/lodging release; SF Travel 2025 Annual Report PDF
• CoStar STR March and June 2026 Top 25 releases
• Pebblebrook Q3 2026; Park Hotels Hilton/Parc 55 and Hyatt Centric releases; Morningstar DBRS; SF Chronicle; Fried Frank; Sunstone; Sixth Street; Braemar
• SF TID FAQ and timing PDF; sf.gov transfer tax; SF Treasurer TOT page (re-verify — fetch blocked this turn)
• Marcus & Millichap Addison listing; Bisnow Related FiDi tower

What’s next for San Francisco hotels

• Moscone and events are carrying RevPAR into a tougher 2027 comps year. San Francisco Travel’s Aug. 26, 2026 Visitor Impact Summit forecast put 2026 hotel occupancy at 70.7% (+5.2% YoY), ADR at $266.16 (+8.5%), and RevPAR at $188.06 (+14.1%) — a second straight year of roughly 14% RevPAR growth — with Moscone Center expected to host 38 events generating more than 656,000 room nights. For 2027, SF Travel projects occupancy 72.1%, ADR $271.43, RevPAR $195.61, and Moscone 33 events / 640,000+ room nights, with overnight international visitors to San Francisco and San Mateo counties forecast at 2.42 million (+5.2%) after two years of anemic inbound growth (SF Travel). Analysis: Owners underwriting 2027 should treat Dreamforce- and Super Bowl-adjacent 2026 as elevated base periods, not a permanent run-rate.
• Dreamforce remains the Moscone anchor into 2027. Salesforce has saved the date for Dreamforce Sept. 21–23, 2027 in San Francisco (registration targeted for spring 2027) (Salesforce). SF Travel’s 2026 forecast explicitly named Dreamforce alongside Super Bowl LX and the Pokémon World Championships as drivers of one of Moscone’s strongest recent calendars (SF Travel).
• FIFA World Cup 2026 Bay Area matches were at Levi’s Stadium, not downtown SF. The San Francisco Bay Area hosted six FIFA World Cup 2026 matches at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara — five group-stage games (June 13–25) and one Round of 32 match on July 1 (SF.gov; FIFA). Analysis: Cup room demand competed with South Bay and Peninsula inventory; SF Union Square/Moscone owners should not assume every match night filled citywide blocks the way a downtown stadium host would.
• Guest tax stack stays among the highest large-city totals. San Francisco Travel’s Tourism Improvement District FAQ states the city’s total hotel tax, assessments and fees is 17.50%, with the TID assessment at 2.25% of room revenue in Zone 1 and 2.00% in Zone 2 after a Nov. 1, 2024 board-approved increase (SF TID FAQ). The city Transient Occupancy Tax (hotel tax) itself is 14% on stays under 30 days (SF Treasurer & Tax Collector).
• Labor floor: citywide minimum wage is $19.61 as of July 1, 2026. San Francisco’s Office of Labor Standards Enforcement requires covered employers to pay no less than $19.61 per hour for work in the city (CPI-adjusted each July 1), with a lower $17.35 rate only for a narrow class of “Government Supported Employees” (SF.gov Minimum Wage Ordinance).
• CMBS distress at the Union Square mega-pair resolved via receiver sale. Park Hotels & Resorts ceased payments in June 2023 on the $725 million non-recourse CMBS loan secured by the Hilton San Francisco Union Square and Parc 55; the trustee sought a court-appointed receiver in October 2023 (Park Hotels Form 8-K). Newbond Holdings and Conversant Capital closed the acquisition of both hotels — about 3,000 rooms, roughly 10% of city inventory — for $408 million in November 2025 after court-ordered receivership dating to October 2023 (Hotel Business). Analysis: The exit clears a large distressed block from Park’s balance sheet; CapEx and repositioning under new ownership are the next local supply-quality variable, not another near-term foreclosure overhang on those keys.

San Francisco hotel market FAQ

How is the San Francisco hotel market doing in 2026?

SF Travel’s May 2026 release put full-year 2025 city occupancy at 67.2%, ADR at $245.38 and RevPAR at $164.85 (+14.4%). CoStar’s Top 25 San Francisco market YE 2025 print was ADR $225.82 and RevPAR $155.84 (+11.8%) — different geography/sample; print both. SF Travel’s updated Aug. 26, 2026 forecast is 70.7% occupancy, $266.16 ADR and $188.06 RevPAR (+14.1%). CoStar’s June 2026 Top 25 San Francisco/San Mateo monthly print was much hotter (80.5% / $264.42 / $212.87) in a World Cup month — label period and geography.

What is San Francisco’s hotel tax?

San Francisco’s Transient Occupancy Tax is 14% of taxable rent for stays under 30 days (SF.gov; SF Treasurer Certificate of Authority and TOT returns). Hotels also remit Tourism Improvement District assessments (2.25% Zone 1 / 2.00% Zone 2) and Moscone Expansion District assessments (1.25% Zone 1 / 0.3125% Zone 2). SF Travel’s TID FAQ puts the total hotel tax, assessments and fees at 17.50%.

What happened to the Hilton Union Square and Parc 55?

Park Hotels stopped paying the $725 million CMBS loan in 2023; a receiver took control and sold the 2,945-room pair on Nov. 21, 2025 to Newbond Holdings and Conversant Capital. Morningstar DBRS and local coverage put the price at $408 million (about $138,540 per key), with the buyers assuming and modifying the loan. CoStar’s $367.2M figure is a labeled secondary conflict.

What transfer tax applies to a large hotel sale?

Under the existing Assessor-Recorder schedule on sf.gov (the 2020 Prop I tiers), consideration of $10 million to under $25 million is taxed at $27.50 per $500 (5.5%), and $25 million or more at $30.00 per $500 (6%). Separately, PENDING Nov. 3, 2026 ballot Props I and J would change dedication of high-end transfer-tax revenue and foreclosure exemptions — they are not yet law (sf.gov qualified ballot measures).