America Is Losing the Foreign Visitor: $11 Billion Less Spending in 2026, and No Full Recovery Until 2030

By Nathan Snyder, Editor · November 6, 2026

International travelers will spend nearly $11 billion less in the United States this year, and arrivals won’t get back to 2019 levels until 2030, according to the U.S. Travel Association’s new fall forecast. Here is what the numbers say, why they matter to hotel owners, and what owners can do now.

The forecast: down 6.3% to $163 billion

The forecast, built with Tourism Economics, puts international visitor spending at about $163 billion in 2026 after inflation, down 6.3%. Total U.S. travel spending is expected to slip 0.7% to $1.35 trillion, even though Americans are expected to take a record 2.44 billion domestic trips.

The U.S. is losing ground to other countries

• U.S. international arrivals: 67.8 million projected for 2026, versus 79.4 million in 2019, down 14.6%
• France: up 23.1% over the same period
• Spain: up 27.7%
• Japan: up 40.7%
• U.S. share of global long-haul travel: 10.3% in 2019, 7.7% in 2026, a projected 7.1% by 2030

Why hotel owners should care

Foreign guests matter more than their headcount suggests. They tend to stay longer and spend more per trip, and they fill rooms in gateway markets midweek and off-season, when domestic leisure demand is thin.

New York shows what is at stake. International visitors accounted for roughly half of the city’s tourism spending in 2025, according to the forecast’s figures, and tourism there supported 397,000 jobs and $7.5 billion in tax revenue.

Domestic travelers are not going to fill the whole gap on their own. The same forecast says travel prices will rise 7.2% this year, more than twice the 3.4% overall inflation rate. Americans are still traveling, but they are paying more to do it.

What the industry is asking Congress for

U.S. Travel, led by CEO Geoff Freeman, wants action in two stages:

1. Before the Dec. 11 funding deadline: pass government funding, and make sure TSA officers and air traffic controllers keep getting paid during any future shutdown.
2. In 2027: reauthorize Brand USA and restore its full funding; expand visa processing and cut unnecessary visa fees and entry barriers; speed up air traffic control and airport security upgrades.

The group says reaching 100 million international visitors a year by 2030 could add $68 billion in visitor spending and more than 350,000 jobs. Travel already supports more than 15 million U.S. jobs and $92 billion in state and local taxes.

What owners can do now

• Check your mix. Compare your 2019 and 2026 segmentation to see how much international business you have lost. In gateway markets, it may explain more of your RevPAR gap than you think.
• Budget for it. If the forecast is right, international demand won’t fully return for three more years. Don’t build a 2019 international mix into your 2027 budget.
• Talk to your representative. The midterms are over and the funding deadline is Dec. 11. A short note from a local owner about jobs and hotel taxes carries weight.

The bottom line

Japan has 40% more foreign visitors than it did in 2019. The U.S. has nearly 15% fewer. Every missing guest is a room night a hotel in New York, Miami, Orlando, Las Vegas or Los Angeles didn’t sell. Until that changes, owners in those markets are competing for a smaller pie.

FAQ: international visitors and U.S. hotels

How much less will international visitors spend in the U.S. in 2026?

Nearly $11 billion less, a 6.3% drop to about $163 billion, according to the U.S. Travel Association’s fall 2026 forecast.

When will international travel to the U.S. recover?

The forecast says international arrivals won’t return to 2019 levels until 2030.

Which countries are gaining visitors instead?

Compared with 2019, France is up 23.1%, Spain 27.7% and Japan 40.7%.

Track every U.S. hotel sale we cover, with price per key, on our Hotel Transactions Desk.

Sources: Hotel Online, Nov. 5, 2026, reporting the U.S. Travel Association Fall 2026 Forecast (Tourism Economics).