Baldwin Book: Property Cuts Stall at 8%, Umbrella +5.6%

Property relief has stopped accelerating while umbrella and cyber keep rising. Here is the renewal, lender and budget math for your hotel.

By Nathan Snyder, Editor · Nov. 3, 2026

Commercial property pricing fell 8.0% in the third quarter, The Baldwin Group reported Oct. 29 — but for the first time in six straight quarters of cuts, the decline did not deepen. Umbrella rose 5.6% and cyber 2.0%, its highest reading since early 2023, and Baldwin is pointing to Jan. 1 casualty reinsurance renewals as the next signal for excess pricing. If your hotel renews this winter, budget for property relief that has stopped accelerating and liability costs that have not stopped climbing.

What Changed Since July

When we mapped the hotel insurance market as Hurricane Isaias came ashore (Cheaper Wind, Pricier Lawsuits, Oct. 12), we leaned on Baldwin’s July 29 hospitality mid-year report. That report said non-catastrophe-exposed hotels with clean loss histories were getting mid-single-digit to low-double-digit property reductions, and that umbrella and excess “remains hardened,” with well-performing hospitality risks still seeing low-double-digit increases.

Baldwin’s Q3 Market Pulse is the first hard print since then, and it changes the shape of the curve. Property pricing fell 8.0% in Q3, essentially level with Q2’s 8.1% decline. It is the sixth consecutive quarter of decreases and the first in which the decline did not deepen. In other words, you are still getting cuts, but you should not assume next quarter’s cut will be bigger than this one.

One caution before you put that 8.0% in a budget: it is a book-wide figure across Baldwin’s commercial clients, not a hotel rate card. Baldwin says the index blends rate changes, exposure shifts and client purchasing decisions such as limits and deductibles, and gives directional insight rather than line-by-line rate guidance. The Q3 book was measured as of Sept. 30, before Isaias made landfall.

Casualty Is Moving the Other Way

While property eases, the lines that protect you from lawsuits are going up. Umbrella pricing rose 5.6% in Q3, up from 5.0% in Q2 but below Q1’s 8.2%. Baldwin says primary auto and general liability continue to ease while excess insurers hold firm, “and the gap between them is widening,” with cautious reinsurers behind excess capacity adding pressure.

General liability rose 3.5%, down from 4.5% in Q2 and 6.1% in Q1 — the third pullback since Q4 2025’s 9.3% peak. Commercial auto rose 2.9%, the lowest reading since the index began in Q3 2021. Cyber rose 2.0%, up from 0.4% in Q2 and the highest reading since early 2023; Baldwin cites ransomware, AI-enabled social engineering, business email compromise and third-party outages. Workers’ compensation was effectively flat at -0.1%.

“Property is no longer getting softer faster, but it is still delivering real opportunity for buyers who come to renewal with current valuations and strong loss control documentation,” said Leslie Nylund, National Managing Director of Broking and Insurance Company Partnerships at The Baldwin Group. “The mistake would be to apply that same optimism to casualty.”

The Jan. 1 Flag

Baldwin expects property to keep softening into Q4, with a late-season storm as the main variable — and Isaias has already produced a Florida claims ledger hotel owners are living with (our Nov. 1 claims update). On casualty, Baldwin says meaningful tort reform impact on pricing is unlikely before 2027, and that the January 1 casualty reinsurance renewals will be an important signal for where excess pricing goes next. If your umbrella or excess tower renews in Q1, that is the number your broker will be watching.